Explanation of policy statements
Personal characteristics and experience
To many voters, a number of these statements will be irrelevant - the gender or age of the candidate make no difference to whether they have the ability to be the nominee. However for a significant minority of voters these issues are significant, and this is why the statements have been included within the quiz. In terms of the supporting facts behind the scoring, none of them are likely to be contentious. On the drug taking statement unless there has been an explicit statement on the part of the candidate that they have taken drugs, we have assumed that they have not. Probably the most contentious view we have taken is the scoring we have applied to the statement on senior political experience. We have taken the view that a holding the position of State Governor, Mayor of a city the size of New York, chairing a Senate Committee or having held a cabinet position constitute senior political roles. In the case of Duncan Hunter we consider his long service as Chairman of House Armed Services Committee to constitute a senior political role. We do not judge having been simply a Senator or member of Congress counts in this respect. The role of First Lady is not a political position and we likewise do not reflect this in the scoring.
Security and foreign policy
Many of the candidates' positions on Iraq are well known. Among the Democrats Obama has been an outspoken critic of the war from the beginning (as have Gravel and Kucinich), while Edwards and Clinton both supported the invasion initially but have subsequently had serious concerns on the case made for war upon which they based their decision and the subsequent implementation of military operations. Despite this, we have scored them on the basis of initially being in favour of the military action - at the point the decision was made other candidates made their opposition clear, despite the case being made. Clinton and Obama are prepared to commit to an open-ended deployment - they would aim to have all troops out by 2013, but will not make a firm pledge. The other candidates support a much faster timetable for withdrawal, John Edwards stating in the Democratic Debate at Drexel University on Oct 30 2007 that we would have all combat troops out by the end of his first year in office. The Republicans are more similar to each other in their views on Iraq: all bar Paul supported the war and all would retain troops for as long as they are required in the region. The Iran statement is currently key only for the Democrats, where Obama has made it clear that he would meet with Iranian leaders without preconditions to attempt a diplomatic resolution to the current tension. The subject of use of force in Iran is far from a clear cut differentiator among the candidates, but we will continue to consider the issue and potentially update/add a statement on this topic.
The waterboarding statement has been included for the Republicans given McCain's clear stance on the subject (as a victim of torture himself he obviously has particular insight) whereas Giuliani holds an opposing view. We have not been able to determine a clear stance from the other candidates, so they have been zero scored. On the subject of Guantanamo the Democrats are all agreed on the need to close the prison, a view shared by Republicans McCain and Paul. Romney is perhaps worthy of note on this issue. In the Republican debate in South Carolina on May 15 2007 he stated: 'I want them on Guantanamo, where they don't get the access to lawyers they get when they're on our soil. I don't want them in our prisons. I want them there. Some people have said, we ought to close Guantanamo. My view is, we ought to double Guantanamo.' To reflect this, his point score goes up to +/-12 on this issue.
Law and society
The Democrats universally and unsurprisingly support existing abortion laws. The Republicans, equally unsurprisingly would seek to have them repealed. The notable exception to this is Giuliani who, while personally not in favour of abortion, supports women's right to choose it. On partial birth abortion Giuliani has changed his stance, from supporting it for many years, to now supporting a ban. All Democrats and Giuliani and Paul from the Republicans support embryonic stem cell research (or more specifically in the case of Paul, support stem cell research in general and believes that the Federal government has no role in legislating on embryonic research).
All the candidates believe that the use of marijuana should continue to be legal, with three notable exceptions. Paul believes that the sales of narcotics should be legalised with individuals taking personal responsibility for their use. In his campaign as Libertarian party candidate for the 1988 Presidential Election he stated: 'All drugs should be decriminalized. Drugs should be distributed by any adult to other adults. There should be no controls on production, supply or purchase for adults.' A view he supported as recently as December 23 2007 on Meet the Press. From the Democrats both Gravel and Kucinich would decriminalise marijuana.
All the of the Democrats support a ban on the sale of assault weapons, and as is well known, from the Republican side Giuliani likewise supports a nationwide ban. The other Republican candidates, predictably, do not support a ban. All of the leading candidates support the death penalty, but Gravel and Paul oppose it - the latter on libertarian grounds.
Despite their liberal leanings, none of the leading Democratic candidates support the legalisation of gay marriage - the whole of the Republican field is also against it. Gravel and Kucinich however do clearly support the issue. The Federal Marriage Amendment (FMA) (also known as the Marriage Protection Amendment) is a proposed amendment to the United States Constitution which would define marriage in the United States as a union of one man and one woman. The FMA also would prevent judicial extension of marriage rights to same-sex or other unmarried couples, as well as preventing people from having multiple spouses. It would therefore rule out any possibility of gay marriage being approved at a state level. While few of the Democrats support gay marriage, all are opposed to this bill. Four Republicans share their stance, Giuliani, McCain, Thomson and Paul - though it should be noted that Paul only opposes the amendment because he does not believe such laws should be passed at Federal level.
Smoking in public places might not seem significant enough to merit a statement, but in terms of immediate impact upon people's daily lives it is a significant issue. All of the Democrats bar Clinton support the ban, though Obama is a little lukewarm on the subject saying that he would only seek to implement a national ban if local bans failed, and his scoring reflects this. Among the Republicans only Huckabee supports a ban.
Immigration
The candidates broadly split on party lines on the issues surrounding immigration, however there are some points worth noting. All Democrats believe in a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants along with just McCain for the Republicans. He is keen however that this position is not considered to be an amnesty for illegal immigrants. None of the Republicans support issuing drivers' licenses to illegal immigrants and this has been a slightly convoluted issue among the Democrats with a lack of clarify on position in some instances; however, Obama has confirmed his support in the face of opposition from the other candidates (we are still unsure where Gravel sits on the subject). All Republicans support building a fence/wall along the border with Mexico. Obama and Clinton agree, with Gravel and Kucinich against, and John Edwards is against an overall barrier but believes that additional fencing might be required in some areas, and his scoring reflects this.
Healthcare
There is a clear split between Republicans and Democrats on the subject of ensuring that all Americans have some form of health coverage as one would expect. This is a complex area, and attempting to find a single point of differential between the Democratic candidates on that can be condensed into straightforward statement was challenging. We have selected the statement Medicaid/SCHIP (or similar replacements) should be expanded to increase the number of low income children and adults who can receive free healthcare. Edwards and Obama have made clear commitments to increase Medicaid - to all adults under 100% of the federal poverty level FPL) and in the case of children to all whose families are under 250% of FPL. Gravel and Kucinich would replace the whole system, effectively increasing cover. Only Clinton has not committed to making clear expansion in Medicaid/SCHIP cover, only referring to strengthening the system to 'plug gaps'.
Tax and wages
Democrats would repeal recent tax cuts (with the exception of Gravel who supports the replacement of income tax with Fair Tax) whereas Republicans would retain them. Fair Tax (under which income tax would be replaced with a sales tax, here for more details) is supported by Gravel as mentioned, and also Huckabee. Paul believes that Federal spending should be reduced so significantly to do away with the need for income tax, though would see a Fair Tax type approach as a potential interim measure and his score reflects this. Many of the Republican candidates support a simplified tax system, but only Thomson has specifically proposed a flat tax system. A couple of candidates have flat-line zero scores to reflect our lack of clarity on this issue which we hope to become populated as the campaigns continue. The minimum wage issue divides neatly on party lines as one might expect.
As for trade, all of the Democratic candidates believe that the US should pull out of CAFTA and that tax breaks for companies who off-shore jobs should be removed (apart from Gravel whose position we are not certain on and his score has been flat-line zeroed). All the Republicans with the exception of Hunter and Paul support the trade agreement and the only one for whom with have a clear position on the tax-break is McCain - the other candidates are zeroed.
Environment
None of the Republican candidates have committed to the 80% greenhouse gas emissions that their Democratic counterparts have. McCain and Huckabee would support a cap and trade system to reduce carbon emissions; none of the Republicans do. McCain is also the only Republican who believes that the US should sign up to the Kyoto Treaty, provided that India and China do as well, something that all Democrats support.
Electability
This is arguably the most significant statement within the whole quiz - after all, what is the point of voting for a candidate to get the party's nomination because they reflect you views if they have limited chance of winning on the national stage? Of course support for the issues that and unsuccessful candidate represents can help influence the eventual nominee's policy positioning but in general most people are voting because they want their candidate to win the overall nomination for their party. In order to score this statement we have taken a slightly different approach to the others. Candidates where we have no information get a flat zero. For those candidates who score, a disagreement with the statement does not give them a negative score (it does make much sense for a candidate to get a mark against them if they are electable and this measure is ensure that users who pick disagree rather than neutral by mistake do not get an erroneous result.) The scoring goes up to 12 in one instance to reflect the strength of that candidate's position. In terms of assessing the relative performance of the candidates we have used the head to head polling data which is usefully aggregated on RealClearPolitics. For the Republicans the only candidates to receive scores are McCain who is currently beating Clinton in the head to heads and is level with Obama, and Giuliani who is more or less level. Both lose to all other Democrats in the head to heads and none of the current Republican candidates who have been polled beat any of the Democrats. Of the three Democratic candidates who have been polled in head to heads, Clinton is the poorest performing, losing to McCain and being on a par with Giuliani while beating the others. Obama is level with McCain but comfortably beats the rest, and the top performer Edwards beats all comers with ease. The scores reflect this position, but we will revisit the scoring of against this statement on a regular basis to ensure that is reflects the most up-to-date polling data.
